Vulnerability & Directionality

Vulnerability

The final vulnerability scores will be estimated using the same methods as Hare et al 2016. Final vulnerability scores will be the product of exposure and sensitivity. Spatially and temporally explicit products will be available, as well as a total vulnerability score for the species, as well as individual scores at the stock levels as appropriate.

Directionality & Predicted Habitat Change

In the original CVA, in addition to ranking how sensitive species may be to future climate change, experts also estimated if species would be positively or negatively impacted by climate change. We will follow the same protocols here to estimate directionality, specifically in terms of species abundance, in the CVA2.0.

The original CVA also asked experts to estimate the likelihood that species distributions would shift. For the CVA2.0, we will use the species distribution models to quantify how species distributions will shift using the species distribution models. We will calculate change in habitat area over time from the decadal and long-term projections from MOM6, as well as shifts in the center of distributions.