Background

The Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council’s Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) uses ecosystem indicators within a risk assessment framework to identify high-priority issues for further development of potential management actions, as described here.

Development of conceptual models to address management questions regarding the highest priority ecosystem factors is the second step in the Council’s EAFM Guidance Document framework. These models are built to ensure that key relationships throughout the system are accounted for. Utilizing the results of the risk assessment, the Council agreed to begin piloting the development of a summer flounder conceptual model that will consider the high priority risk factors affecting summer flounder and its fisheries. This page provides interactive views of the risk factors mapped in the draft conceptual model for summer flounder developed for the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council by a working group:

Summer Flounder Conceptual Model Working Group 2019
Name Affiliation Subgroup
Greg Ardini NEFSC Human Dimensions
Mark Terceiro NEFSC Physical Environment
Michael Wilberg UMD Physical Environment
Douglas Lipton NMFS Human Dimensions
Kiley Dancy MAFMC Human Dimensions
Jessica Coakley MAFMC Physical Environment
Kirby Rootes-Murdy ASMFC Human Dimensions
Jason McNamee RI DEM Physical Environment
Jeff Brust NJ DEP Physical Environment
Danielle Palmer GARFO Human Dimensions
Emily Gilbert GARFO Human Dimensions
Robert O’Reilly EOP & VMRC Human Dimensions
G. Warren Elliott EOP Chair Human Dimensions
Charles Perretti NEFSC Physical Environment
Geret DePiper NEFSC Both
Sarah Gaichas NEFSC Both
Brandon Muffley MAFMC Both

Visualizing a Conceptual Model

A conceptual model is simply a map of the most important relationships between things. This conceptual model maps the relationships of things (“elements”) that the Council and working group have identified as important to summer flounder fisheries and management. The relationships are not quantified or ranked in this simple map; if they are included at all they were considered important by the working group. Later analyses, based on the data sets identified below, can quantify linkages. The primary objective of this model is scoping: first, to get a big picture idea of the linkages to both refine and focus a set of management questions for Council consideration, and second to determine which relationships are necessary to include in later quantitative analysis addressing specific management issues prioritized by the Council.

In this visualization, model elements identified as important by the Council (through risk assessment) and by the working group (through a range of experience and expertise) are at the perimeter of the circle. Elements are defined in detail in the last section of this page. Relationships between elements are represented as links across the center of the circle to other elements on the perimeter. Links from a model element that affect another element start wide at the base and are color coded to match the category of the element they affect.

Hover over a perimeter section (an element) to see all relationships for that element, including links from other elements. Hover over a link to see what it connects. Links by default show text for the two elements and the direction of the relationship (1 for relationship, 0 for no relationship–most links are one direction).

For example, hovering over the element “Total Landings” in the full model shows that the working group identified the elements affected by landings as Seafood Production, Recreational Value, and Commercial Profits (three links leading out from landings), and the elements affecting landings as Fluke SSB, Fluke Distributional Shift, Risk Buffering, Management Control, Total Discards, and Shoreside Support (6 links leading into Total Landings).

Full model and submodels for risk elements

The plots below visualize conceptual model links for subsets of model components, including all links to and from individual risk elements. Click on tab corresponding to the portion of the conceptual model you want to see.

Full Model

Risk Elements Only

Fluke Distributional Shift

Estuarine Habitat

Stock Biomass

Stock Assessment

Offshore Habitat

Allocation

Commercial Profits

Discards

Shoreside Support

Fleet Diversity

Management Control

Recreational Value

Regulatory Complexity

Seafood Production

Technical Interactions

Documentation Tables

Each link in the conceptual model corresponds to an entry in the documentation tables below. Click on the category name to see the full documentation assembled by the working group.

Physical Environment

Fluke Distributional Shift

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) If yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Temperature Summer flounder have a defined thermal preference and as that thermal preference/habitat changes (shifts and/or expands), the stock will shift and change along with the temperature change. Y Sea Surface Temp back to 80’s (Paula); Bottom temp from F-D survey (K. Friedland) at seasonal/annual at stock boundry NA
Spatial heterogeneity in recruit success Inshore (estuarine) areas support differential juvenile development, growth and survivorship and, therefore, result in varying recruitment success. As the productivity in inshore environments change, changes and patterns of recruit survivorship may be occurring and influencing distribution changes. Y Productivity anomaly (ratio of small/large); NEAMAP; Stock Assessment North/South
Landings and Discards (Spatial heterogeneity in fishing mortality) Recreational and commercial fishing effort and mortality is spatially distributed due to summer flounder availability, size structure and management control. Y VTRs; NEFSC Fishing Footprint maps; North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Fleet (large/small vessel)
Spatial heterogeneity in food availability Prey availability, location and species composition changes spatially throughout the summer flounder range. Y NEFSC Food Habbits database - offshore; NEAMAP - nearshore; ChesMAP - inshore; other estuary/inshore work by Houde/Able/Buckel others? North/South; Inshore/Offshore
Spatial heterogeneity in natural mortality Spatial differences and changes in M throughout the summer flounder range. M State/space model (T. Miller); Production model (C. Perretti) North/South; Inshore/Offshore
Estuarine habitat See Estuarine Habitat Risk Factor table Y See detailed information in Estuarine Habitat risk element table NA
SSB or Total abundance Increasing stock size/abundance can lead to stock expansion; while decreasing stock size/abundance can lead to stock contraction. Y Stock assessment (age structure); State-space/VAST/Habitat suitibility models considered by assessment workgroup NA
Oceanographic transport Currents, tides, eddies, large scale oceanographic transport processes that contribute to recruitment events (location, time, deposition) which could impact M (larval survival) and growth. Processes also impact habitat related functions such as nutrients and food web dynamics. M NA NA
Change in size structure As total stock abundance changes, changes in distribution will likely change. As stock abundance increases, the size structure may increase with larger/older fish generally more prevalent in northern spatial extent. Y Assessment work NA
Offshore habitat Offshore habitat (quality and quantity) plays a critical role in summer flounder growth, mortality, distribution etc. Evaluation of offshore habitat location, extent and availability of habitat use; annual, seasonal and predicted future use; change in habitat use over time; factors driving species distribution. Y V. Guida - BOEM analysis; K. Friedland habitat occupancy; See L. Rogers et. al. 2019. Nature Climate Change. Shifting Habitats expsoe fishign communities to risk under climate change; Work from the Northeast Regional Marine Fish Habitat Assessment; Ocean Acidification Network, summer flounder acidification sensitivity work - https://midacan.org/, http://midatlanticocean.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/MACAN-Fact-Sheet.pdf NA

Estuarine Habitat

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) If yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Temperature Thermal condition, important property for species habitat use and bioenergetics Y Water temp (sea-surface; satelite), NOAA, https://eastcoast.coastwatch.noaa.gov/data/avhrr/sst/; Mean annual air temp, PRISM, http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/normals/; Mean annual air temp, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57054aebe4b0d4e2b756d1fc; Water temp, USGS, https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources Impacts unlikely to be uniformly distributed by estuary, N-S regions (ditto down the line); maybe NS break depending on question and how aligns with other elements? NOAA water temp data available for east coast and available at daily, 3-day, 7-day, monthly, annaul basis
Dissolved oxygen levels Limiting water quality parameter. Spatial and temporal extent of low dissolved oxygen levels can impact critical habitat and fish distribution. Stressor on fish metabolic rate and reproductive success. Y From USGS; https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources NA
Habitat alteration Positive and negative factors. Positive factors for element include marsh, beach and SAV restoration efforts as well as negative factors such as shoreline hardening and habitat degradation. Y Shoreline categories, NOAA ESI maps, https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/resources/environmental-sensitivity-index-esi-maps; Land cover, , USGS NLCD, https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/national-land-cover-database-nlcd-land-cover-collection; Landscape, NALCC, https://northatlanticlcc.org/products NA
Food web changes (differential by life stage) Different food web dynamics at different life stages. So if the prey field is changing in the estuaries and in turn has some sort of effect on growth, survival etc. on juveniles that is different than the dynamics offshore with adults M (likely fine scale studies) Various sources (depends) NA
Salinity Limiting factor on summer flounder distribution in estuary Y From USGS, https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources NA
Freshwater influx/precipitation Element that can impact a number of critical habitat components such as salinity, water quality, dissolved oxygen and water clarity. Can also impact spatial/temporal distribution of fish abundance (prey and summer flounder). Includes consideration/evaluation of storm events. Natural/mother-nature events that produce the amount and severity of freshwater influx and precipitation. Y

Mean annual precip, PRISM, http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/normals/; NHDPlusV2,https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57040af4e4b0328dcb82842b; Water prediction, NOAA, https://water.noaa.gov/; Watershed avg of mean day of year 1st freeze, PRISM, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5704052ae4b0328dcb827bc7; Mean day of last freeze, PRISM, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57040a6ce4b0328dcb828378; Monthly number of wet days, PRISM, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57040b6ce4b0328dcb8284b8; Estimated precip as snow, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57053dc5e4b0d4e2b756c117 ; Avg # of consecutive days of precip, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57053e25e4b0d4e2b756c17d; Mean annual evapotranspiration, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5705491be4b0d4e2b756cf8a; Watershed avg. relative humidity, PRISM,

https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57054a24e4b0d4e2b756d0e7; Precipitation (previous), NWS, https://data.eol.ucar.edu/dataset/21.093; Storm surge (from hurricanes), NWS, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/#data; Precip outlook, NOAA, http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/hab_outlook; 		Annual and monthly data, some back to 1960’s.
Water clarity Important factor in determining SAV growth and distribution within estuary M From USGS/EPA, https://www.waterqualitydata.us/ NA
Loose inert substrate (sand) Sand features and profile (e.g., sand bars, waves). Habitat type noted as an important bottom feature and of high use by summer flounder in work done by ACFHP M State CZM Programs; Sand resources, DOI, https://mmis.doi.gov/BOEMMMIS/; NA
SAV Identified as a HAPC for summer flounder Y, but not comprehensive State CZM Programs; Tidal Marsh Vegetation Classification (DEM), NALCC,https://nalcc.databasin.org/datasets/6a64b843c61e41688091d75bd1718fc0; SAV maps, TNC (Marta Ribera contact) NA
Nutrient influx Impacts water quality, clarity and dissolved oxygen Y Total anthropogenic N yield, USGS, https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5167/ ; Synthetic N fertilizer application, EPA,https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-data; Total anthropogenic P yield, USGS, https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5167/; Total anthropogenic sediment yield, USGS, https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5167/; Estimated N from fert and manure, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57053205e4b0d4e2b756b353; Estimated P from fert and manure, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57053749e4b0d4e2b756b969 NA
Water diversion/flow Important element that impact/limit SAV and overall estuarine habitat distribution. Also impacts salinity and a number of other habitat, water quality parameters. Man-made/influenced element impacting the amount of freshwater flow to an estuary. M Domestic water withdrawal, USGS, https://water.usgs.gov/watuse/data/2005/index.html; Industrial water withdrawal, USGS, same website as first; Thermo-electric water withdrawal, USGS, same website as first; Agriculture water withdrawl, USGS, same website as first; Total water withdrawal, USGS, same website as first; Freshwater withdrawals, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57c9dc05e4b0f2f0cec192f2; Watershed surveys, USDA, https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/water/manage/; Watershed/HUC boundary data, USGS, https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html; Data every 5 years and out a county level

Fluke SSB (Stock Biomass)

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) If yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Estuarine habitat Critical nursey area for juvenile summer flounder and connector to offshore environment and adult population Y See elements and supporting data in Estuarine Habitat risk factor table; Northeast Region Habitat Assessment work; Ocean Acidification Network, summer flounder acidification sensitivity work - https://midacan.org/, http://midatlanticocean.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/MACAN-Fact-Sheet.pdf NA
Offshore habitat Offshore habitat (quality and quantity) plays a critical role in summer flounder growth, mortality, distribution etc. Evaluation of offshore habitat location, extent and availability of habitat use; annual, seasonal and predicted future use; change in habitat use over time; factors driving stock biomass Y Habitat use work and models (Friedland and T. Ketner); Northeast Region Habitat Assessment work NA
Food web changes (shelf vs. estuarine) NA Y Offshore - NEFSC Food habits database; Nearshore - NEAMAP; Inshore - ChesMAP; Able in DE Bay and coastal NJ estuaries Inshore (estuarine)/Offshore (shelf)
Growth NA Y Recent stock assessment and literature cited within report (starting on page 44 of draft assessment report) Inshore (estuarine)/Offshore (shelf)
Maturation NA Y Recent stock assessment and literature cited within report (starting on page 48 of draft assessment report) NA
Natural mortality NA Y Recent stock assessment and literature cited within report (starting on page 51 of draft assessment report) NA
Landings and Discards (Fishing mortality) NA Y Assessment report NA
Sex ratio Applied at all life stages Y Assessment report (starting on page 46 of draft assessment report); Morrison (RU) work; RI study; NEFSC survey and state surveys NA
Age/size structure NA Y Assessment report NA
Recruitment Incorporates life history stages such as eggs, larvae and juveniles. Recruits of juvenile fish to the population as a measure of year class strength. Not recruits to the fishery. Y Assessment report; MARMAP and ECOMON surveys; NEFSC and state surveys NA
Adults/spawners NA Y Assessment report; NEFSC and state surveys NA
Distribution shift NA Y See elements and supporting data in Distribution Changes risk factor table NA

Stock Assessment

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) If yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Fishery-Dependent Data - landings, discards and biological sampling Focus on the available data sources and quality of the data. Is coverage and sampling provide for an accurate representation of trends and magnitude of catch. Y All fisheries dependent data and sources contained in the assessment report NA
Fishery-Independent Data - federal and state surveys, biological sampling Focus on the available data sources and quality of the data. Is coverage and sampling designed to provide accurate representation of population trends. Data uncertainty/accuracy and potential changes in uncertainty/accuracy with climate change and distribution shifts. Y All fisheries independent data and sources contained in the assessment report NA
Risk Buffering (SSB status and OFL estimate) The Council’s risk policy, the SSC determination of scientific uncertainty and the Council’s implementation of management uncertainty (although typically not applied) reduce the OFL to the ABC. The stock assessment generates the OFL to which the risk policy and ABC control rule get applied to determine the ABC and there is uncertainty in the assessment, the OFL and the process in which the ABC, ACL and ACT are applied. Y Stock assessment reports; SSC reports where ABC determinations were made NA
Assessment process Model structure and development as it relates to the associated fisheries dependent and independent data available for inclusion in building the assessment model. Y Assessment report NA

Offshore Habitat

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) If yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Temperature Thermal condition, important property for species habitat use and bioenergetics Y Water temp (sea-surface; satelite), NOAA, https://eastcoast.coastwatch.noaa.gov/data/avhrr/sst/;Mean annual air temp, PRISM, http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/normals/;Mean annual air temp, NHDPlusV2, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57054aebe4b0d4e2b756d1fc;Bottom temp - contact K. Friedland about utility of his work and bottom temps NA
Dissolved oxygen DO could effect some food web dynamics and stock productivity Y https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ocean-is-running-out-of-breath-scientists-warn/; https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/dissolved-oxygen-salinity-temperature-and-depth-data-from-bottle-casts-in-the-north-atlantic-oc NA
Salinity Climate.gov suggests this may impact precipitation paterns, but are there are other things this may be effecting (phyto/zoo plankton community), egg and larvae survival in surface waters, etc.? Y https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/shifting-ocean-surface-saltiness-2004-2013 NA
Ocean acidification May effect the early life stages for summer flounder (see article in data column) Y Mid-Atlantic Coastal Acidification Network (MACAN): https://midacan.org/; NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program: http://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/ ; Biogeosciences article on ocean acidification on summer flounder early life stages - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260727393_Ocean_acidification_effects_in_the_early_life-stages_of_summer_flounder_Paralichthys_dentatus NA
Ocean features Changes in thermal stratification, cold pool, upwelling, sea surface fronts may impacts a number of processes including migration patterns and timing, feeding, etc M Some work underway examining these features. NA
Food web changes Different food web dynamics at different life stages. So if the prey field is changing and in turn has some sort of effect on growth, survival etc. on for adults, or even some of the early pelagic life stages that are also found offshore (eggs/larvae) M Some information may be available through federal data collections North/South
Habitat alteration The impacts of in-water structures such as wind turbines, LNG facilities, G&G (seismic), offshore aquaculture sites, while uncertain have the potential to impact localized habitat dynamics by changing things like flow around structures, creating shade, aggregating prey and/or predators, etc. Some of these things could be positive or negative for summer flounder. Frequency and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricane records included here. M, certain aspects Information on where these are located is readily available. Determing impacts and the directionality of those is challenging. Power Dissipation Index (PDI), SST, etc. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ NA

Human Dimensions

Allocation

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources (including temporal resolution and series length), analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Biomass distributional shifts (North/South) and Fluke SSB Many of the current allocation discussions have focused on reallocation scenarios that are being driven, in part, due to distribution shifts or range expansion of biomass. As the summer flounder biomass changes over time due to climate and/or stock rebuilding, consideration of biomass distribution in any allocation scheme will be needed. Current commercial summer flounder amendment considered, although not selected, stock distribution changes for potential reallocation schemes. Y NEFSC trawl survey and other state and multistate (i.e., NEAMAP) survey information; commercial ammendment DEIS; 2018 benchmark stock assessment North/South
Fishery distributional shift (Inshore/offshore and north/south) Center of commercial fishery effort/landings - coastwide and within many states - has shifted north and east. In 1990’s off southern Delmarva and now off northern NJ. Potential changes and shifts between small and large boat operations. Differences in the recreational fishery inshore vs offshore access. Timing of when fish arrive and size differences of fish inshore vs offshore. States establishing shore-based programs with smaller size limits to increase access. Y Commercial VTRs (harvest/effort locations; vessel size); Social Sciences Branch Fishing Footprint maps; MRIP information; annual staff recreational memos; publications (e.g. Pinsky et. al. 2017; Dubik et. al. 2018) North/South and Inshore/Offshore
Data quality/availability Types of data sources and quality of information available will play a role in determining an allocation and ability to make future changes. Are the data representative of stock availability. Consider data sources outside of com/rec/sector area (e.g., census data, social/economic factors). Y Commercial and recreational landings information with associated uncertainty. Other data sources - census information, boat registration, shoreside support businesses NA
Management control The summer flounder FMP specifies the sector specific and the recreational and commercial state-by-state allocations. The Council and Board recently made adjustments to the commercial allocation depending upon the total commercial quota. Future adjustments to any allocation scheme are under the purview of management and, therefore, directly affects allocation outcomes. Y Summer flounder FMP; recent EIS on the commercial summer flounder amendment; recently initiated sector allocation amendment; see data sources identified under other allocation elements (below) NA
Recreational/commercial allocation 60% commercial, 40% recreational allocation split part of FMP and based on landings from 1980-1989. Is this split optimal/accurate, especially with new MRIP estimates. Potential sector allocation considerations. Y

Council funded allocation review project (Hicks & Schnier); MRIP data and commercial landings.

Historical allocation across sectors/states are available at http://www.mafmc.org/sf-s-bsb. Recreatinal/commercial. 		NA
State-level allocation Both commercial (1980-1989) and recreational (1998; no longer used as explicit allocation target) state-by-state allocations are part of the Council and ASMFC FMP and perceived to be outdated and not reflective of history or current situation. Potential sector allocation considerations. Consideration and identification of shoreside businesses. Y Commercial landings data and VTR information; MRIP data; commercial amendment EIS document; fishery independent data (NEFSC trawl survey, NEAMAP and other state surveys); NEFSC community vulnerability index North/South and Inshore/Offshore

Commercial Profits

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Compliance/mislabeling (eg. RSA) (From http://www.asmfc.org/species/summer-flounder): “Although reported landings have equaled or only slightly exceeded commercial quotas and recreational harvest limits in recent years, there is evidence of substantial illegal harvest in the form of unreported, underreported, or misreported landings. In 2013 and 2014, two separate investigations revealed that large quantities of summer flounder were being taken illegally under the guise of quota acquired through the Council’s Research Set-Aside (RSA) program (the Council subsequently suspended the program in order to consider alternative cooperative research options). There may also be substantial non-RSA related illegal/unreported landings, although fewer details are available on the extent of unreported landings outside of the RSA program. While the exact amount of illegally harvested summer flounder is not known, the effect may have resulted in substantial overages of the fishery’s annual catch limits (ACLs).” M? NA NA
Shoreside support businesses See Shoreside Support Risk Element below for additional details. Availability of support infrastructure can differentially affect fishing costs, as lack of infrastructure at home ports could increase travel costs to and from available markets. Y Shoreside support can partially be assessed through the number of seafood merchant wholesaler, seafood product preparation and packaging, and seafood market companies and nonemployer entitites (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm; Nonemployer Statistics. U.S. Census Bureau.https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/nonemployer-statistics.html). Nonemployer entities are businesses that have no paid employees (i.e. the owner is the workforce), while the shoreside support companies include all businesses with paid employees. Some state level data is not available due to confidentiality. Other support businesses such as gear manufacturers, welding companies, etc. are not available due to aggregation of statistics across industries. State & County level data available between 2001 - 2017 (companies) and 2004 - 2017 (nonemployer entities).
Community vulnerability Community vulnerability can correspond to a community’s economic dynamism, in that the more vulnerable community, the less quickly is it likely to respond to shifting economic dynamics due to lack of access to capital, lack of entrepreneurial expertise, etc. Y

Jepson, M., and Colburn, L.L. 2013. Development of Social Indicators of Fishing Community Vulnerability and Resilience in the US Southeast and Northeast Regions. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS- F/SPO-129 (US Dept Commerce, 2013). Available from http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/management/ councils/training/2014/r_h3_fishing_community_vulnerability.pdf

Colburn, L.L., Jepson, M., Weng, C., Seara, T., Weiss, J., and Hare, J.A. 2016. Indicators of climatechange and social vulnerability in fishing dependent communities along the Eastern and Gulf Coasts ofthe United States. Marine Policy74: 323–333. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2016.04.030. 		Estimated at community level across the entire eastern seaboard, with two separate time periods available.
Costs and expenditures Trip costs generally affect net revenue. To the extent that distributional shifts are increasing travel distances, trip costs would play a role in what kind of trips are taken and from where. Fixed costs combine with trip costs to determine profitability, and long-term business viability. Y

Das C. 2014. Northeast trip cost data - overview, estimation, and predictions. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS NE-227; 20 p. Available from: National Marine Fisheries Service, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1026, or online at /publications/

Das C. 2014. An overview of the annual cost survey protocol and results in the northeastern region (2007-2009). NOAA Tech Memo NMFS NE-226; 34 p. Available from: National Marine Fisheries Service, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1026, or online at /publications/ 		Samples available 1989-2018 for trip costs and intermittenly between 2007 and 2017 for fixed costs.
Distributional shifts Fishery and species distributional shifts are detailed in the Allocation table above. To the extent that distributional shifts and historical allocation rights are increasing travel distances, it can impact landings prices, trip costs, and fishery profitability. Y

NEFSC trawl survey, commercial amendment EIS document, 2018 benchmark assessment; publications (e.g. Pinsky et. al. 2017; Dubik et. al. 2018)

Commercial VTRs (harvest/effort locations; vessel size); Social Sciences Branch Fishing Footprint maps; MRIP information; annual staff recreational memos 		NA
Commercial Landings Summer flounder fishery has utilized close to 100% of quota in recent years. Quota changes drive quantity changes and quantity changes impact price. Important to understand how landings (quotas) affect commercial revenue. Element also includes market demand and price implications from imports and summer flounder fish alternatives that can potentially undercut domestic summer flounder. Y Dealer data; Q-P relationship for North/South previously analyzed for Commerical Issues Amendment. Hedonic model could be developed North/South
Allocation Allocation between sectors and states is included directly from the risk assessment, and can impact fishing opportunities, which in turn can impact revenue/profitability. See the Allocation risk factor table above for details. Effects of allocation, particularly at the state level, on the consideration of over-capacity and permitting within the commercial fishery. Y

Council funded allocation review project (Hicks & Schnier); MRIP data and commercial landings.

Historical allocation across sectors/states are available at http://www.mafmc.org/sf-s-bsb. Recreatinal/commercial.

Commercial landings data and VTR information; MRIP data; commercial amendment EIS document; fishery independent data (NEFSC trawl survey, NEAMAP and other state surveys); NEFSC community vulnerability index 		State-level
Spawning stock biomass If catchability is density dependent, spawning stock biomass can affect current revenue and profitability levels, either through a lower but constant cpue or through increased search costs (e.g. increased variability in cpue). Y Stock assessment reports NA
Management control Commercial management measures to control effort/catch such as minimum size, area closures, possession/trip limits, mesh sizes etc. that can impact commercial revenue. Element also includes commercial permits (state and/or federal) as a method to control effort and participation in the fishery. Y State and federal regulations; permitting databases (state and federal) NA
Regulatory complexity See regulatory complexity risk factor for broader discussion of the topic. Complexity of regulations can increase costs/decrease revenue of fishing either directly (e.g. being forced to land in states very far from where the fishing occurs, which can decrease the quality of the fish brought to market and thus decrease revenue), or indirectly (e.g. regulations are so complex that individuals do not take a trip due to the potential for unintended non-compliance, and potential penalization). N Participants working on the State of the Ecosytem reports are exploring potential methods to quantify this metric - currently nothing specific is available NA
Economic Drivers (Growth & Prosperity) Seafood demand will be affected by larger dynamics in the economy (e.g. tariffs, GDP growth, etc.). Y GDP growth, personal income, and consumer spending (including expenditures on recreational goods and services) can be found at https://www.bea.gov/news/glance NA
Technical interactions See Technical Interactions risk factor below for discussion of how interactions with species managed by other management bodies including protected species (particularly TEDs) and NEFMC Windowpane Flounder and groundfish more broadly can impact fishing behavior/cpue. Y NEFOP & ASM catch data, VTR data, VMS Data.

North/South

Inshore/Offshore

Discards

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Distributional shifts Fishery and species distributional shifts are detailed in the Allocation table above. Distributional shifts can induce discarding of species for which summer flounder fishermen have no quota (e.g. Northeast Multispecies Groundfish) or permit to fish, or where the bycatch is not economically justifiable to land. Distribution shifts can also change the availability of summer flounder to commercial fishermen and result in changing discard patterns (e.g., quantity, timing, gear interactions) Y

NEFSC trawl survey, commercial amendment EIS document, 2018 benchmark assessment; publications (e.g. Pinsky et. al. 2017; Dubik et. al. 2018)

Commercial VTRs (harvest/effort locations; vessel size); Social Sciences Branch Fishing Footprint maps; MRIP information; annual staff recreational memos 		North/South
Allocation (rec/comm; state) See Allocation risk factor for detailed discussion of issue. Allocation can induce discarding if a mismatch exists between quota allocation and spatial distribution. Y

Council funded allocation review project (Hicks & Schnier); MRIP data and commercial landings.

Historical allocation across sectors/states are available at http://www.mafmc.org/sf-s-bsb. Recreatinal/commercial.

Commercial landings data and VTR information; MRIP data; commercial amendment EIS document; fishery independent data (NEFSC trawl survey, NEAMAP and other state surveys); NEFSC community vulnerability index 		NA
Recreational fishing mortality control Recreational management measures to control effort/catch such as minimum size, season, possession limit, hook size etc. can lead to regulatory discards. Y AP Fishery Performance Reports; Fishery Info Documents; ASMFC Plan Review reports; MRIP NA
Commercial fishing mortality control Commercial management measures to control effort/catch such as minimum size, area closures, possession/trip limits, mesh sizes etc. that can lead to regulatory discards. Y AP Fishery Performance Reports; Fishery Info Documents; ASMFC Plan Review reports; VTR logbooks; Observer database, reasons for discarding NA
Fluke Recruitment (Stock dynamics) Year class strength/recruitment and SSB can influence discards - e.g., a large recruitment event may increase discarding due to a large number of fish under the minimum size limit (commercial or recreational) Y Stock assessment reports NA
Technical/fishery interactions (Council manages species and non-Council managed species) Regulations for other species managed by other Councils may result in increased regulatory discards, catch restrictions, and stakeholder confusion. For example, vessels fishing in the Mid-Atlantic exemption area (defined in the groundfish regulations) may land summer flounder up to state limits, but vessels fishing in the Southern New England (SNE) Exemption Area north must abide by more stringent regulations imposed from other fisheries managed by the NEFMC (e.g., the requirement for no possession any other species than scallops on declared day-boat scallop trips in the SNE Dredge Exemption Area results in discarding summer flounder). Y VTR data; NEFOP & ASM observer data; dealer reports; VMS data; Regulations at 50 CFR 648

North/South

Inshore/Offshore

Shoreside Support

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Number and location of support businesses and self-employed individuals at these businesses Risk Assessment indicated that the number of support businesses presented a significant downward trend, which translated into a medium high risk category. Although number of self-employed individuals presented an increasing trend in the risk assessment, self-employment numbers help explain the economic dynamics in the system, and are thus included. Y

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm; Nonemployer Statistics. U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/nonemployer-statistics.html

Shoreside support can partially be assessed through the number of seafood merchant wholesaler, seafood product preparation and packaging, and seafood market companies and nonemployer entitites. Shoreside support businesses include all businesses with paid employees. Other support businesses such as gear manufacturers, welding companies, etc. are not available due to aggregation of statistics across industries. 		State/County level/metropolitan statistical area data from 2001 - 2017 for businesses; 2004-2016 for individuals
Allocation (state specific) Allocation can affect the landings at the state level, which in turn can impact viability of shoreside support infrastructure. Y Commercial landings data and VTR information; MRIP data; commercial amendment EIS document; fishery independent data (NEFSC trawl survey, NEAMAP and other state surveys); NEFSC community vulnerability index All federally-permitted dealers & landing port.
Commercial landings Shoreside support businesses rely on commercial landings coming to port in order to stay in operation. Y VTRs; Dealer reports NA
Access to permits (state) and landing flexibility State-level allocation of summer flounder quota can impact the geographic distribution of shoreside support businesses, as landing ports are constrained by state-level restrictions. Y Commercial fisheries dealer database; federal permit database. All federally-permitted dealers & landing port.
Distributional shifts Fishery and species distributional shifts are detailed in the Allocation table above. Distributional shifts can interact with landing flexibility and access to permits to affect the geographic distribution of support businesses when compared to unconstrained business patterns. Y

NEFSC trawl survey, commercial amendment EIS document, 2018 benchmark assessment; publications (e.g. Pinsky et. al. 2017; Dubik et. al. 2018; L. Rogers et. al. 2019)

Commercial VTRs (harvest/effort locations; vessel size); Social Sciences Branch Fishing Footprint maps; MRIP information; annual staff recreational memos 		North/South and Inshore/Offshore

Fleet Diversity

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Number and location of support businesses and self-employed individuals at these businesses Risk Assessment indicated that the number of support businesses presented a significant downward trend, which translated into a medium high risk category. Although number of self-employed individuals presented an increasing trend in the risk assessment, self-employment numbers help explain the economic dynamics in the system, and are thus included. Y

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm; Nonemployer Statistics. U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/nonemployer-statistics.html

Shoreside support can partially be assessed through the number of seafood merchant wholesaler, seafood product preparation and packaging, and seafood market companies and nonemployer entitites. Shoreside support businesses include all businesses with paid employees. Other support businesses such as gear manufacturers, welding companies, etc. are not available due to aggregation of statistics across industries. 		State/County level/metropolitan statistical area data from 2001 - 2017 for businesses; 2004-2016 for individuals
Distributional shifts Species distributional shifts can interact with allocation to differentially impact fleet components due to changes in travel costs/biomass availability. Y

NEFSC trawl survey, commercial amendment EIS document, 2018 benchmark assessment; publications (e.g. Pinsky et. al. 2017; Dubik et. al. 2018; L. Rogers et. al. 2019)

Commercial VTRs (harvest/effort locations; vessel size); Social Sciences Branch Fishing Footprint maps; MRIP information; annual staff recreational memos 		North/South and Inshore/Offshore
Allocation Allocation can interact with species distributional shifts to differentially impact fleet components due to changes in travel costs/biomass availability Y Commercial landings data and VTR information; MRIP data; commercial amendment EIS document; fishery independent data (NEFSC trawl survey, NEAMAP and other state surveys); NEFSC community vulnerability index. All federally-permitted dealers & landing port.
Fishing costs (fuel and other) Differential costs across fleets can drive patterns of entry and exit from the fishery. Y

Das C. 2014. Northeast trip cost data - overview, estimation, and predictions. NOAA Tech Memo NMFS NE-227; 20 p. Available from: National Marine Fisheries Service, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1026, or online at /publications/

Das C. 2014. An overview of the annual cost survey protocol and results in the northeastern region (2007-2009). NOAA Tech Memo NMFS NE-226; 34 p. Available from: National Marine Fisheries Service, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1026, or online at /publications/ 		Samples available 1989-2018 for trip costs and intermittenly between 2007 and 2017 for fixed costs.
Access to fishing/landing/gear permits or licenses (at state level) Differential regulations at the state level can differentially impact fishing opportunities across fleet components. Y Commercial fisheries dealer database; federal permit database will help partially address the question. All federally-permitted dealers & landing port.

Management Control

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Stock assessment The assessment is the basis for setting commercial and recreational catch limits and is used to also separate the ABC into landings and discards. Assessment results and uncertainty may not align with what is occuring on water (ie. assessment indicating low biomass or high F but on water is showing high/changing abundance). Y 2018 benchmark stock assessment; previous assessment reports/updates North/South; Inshore/Offshore
Enforcement Needed to help ensure various regulations and harvest/effort control rules (i.e. seasons, trip limits) are followed. Helps lower management uncertainty. Influenced by regulatory complexity and resources available at the state and federal level. Y? Law enforcement reports, citations (federal and state) NA
Compliance Need strong compliance of various regulations and reporting requirements to help ensure accurate info is collected and minimize management uncertainty. Increasing regulatory complexity, frequency of change, decreasing opportunity, perception of fairness, and lower catch limits all reduce compliance. RSA program non-compliance issues. Fishermen, both commercial and recreational, chosing not to abide by certain management measures because of perceived inequities in the management system or allocation schemes. Y MRIP data for non-compliance harvest; RSA review/non-compliance in NY; law enforcement reports NA
Risk buffering and ABC/ACT determination The Council’s risk policy, the SSC determination of scientific uncertainty and the Council’s implementation of management uncertainty (although typically not applied) reduce the OFL to the ABC. The uncertainty in the ABC and “buffering” may impact the Council’s control in limiting catch to the specified limits (e.g. assessment/ABC not aligned with observations on water). The Council can insert additional buffering and reduce the ABC to the ACT to account for management uncertainty. Y Stock assessment documents; Council risk policy and HCR documents; SSC meeting summaries NA
Recreational data quality (landings/discards) Recreational catch information are estimates and not a census and have some level of uncertainty - uncertainty increases as data is more refined (i.e. state, mode, season). Recreational estimates and methodology have changed a number of times over the last 10-15 years. Uncertainty may lead to implementation of recreational accountability measures and reduced opportunities. Recreational discards are more uncertain and account for a high proportion of overall catch. Hook and release mortality estimates are dependent on time, season, gear and method of fishing. Y MRIP data; state volunteer angler data; staff/Monitoring Committee recreational documents and meeting summaries NA
Commercial data quality (landings/discards) Commercial landings are census data and assumed to be accurate/reported without error. Discards are estimated and can be uncertain - both discard amount and discard mortality. Uncertainty in estimates can lead to implementation of accountability measures and additional restrictions. Y VTR data; observer data, dealer reports; assessment and data update reports NA
Variation/predictability in recreational participation (internal/external) Accuracy and precision of recreational effort can affect the ability to account and appropriately manage for recreational effort, particularly with respect to setting bag limits, season length, and trip limits. Y MRIP data precision estimates NA
Interactions across Mid-managed and non-Mid-managed species Regulations for other species managed by other Councils may result in increased regulatory discards, catch restrictions, and stakeholder confusion. For example, vessels fishing in the Mid-Atlantic exemption area (defined in the groundfish regulations) may land summer flounder up to state limits, but vessels fishing in the Southern New England (SNE) Exemption Area north must abide by more stringent regulations imposed from other fisheries managed by the NEFMC (e.g., the requirement for no possession any other species than scallops on declared day-boat scallop trips in the SNE Dredge Exemption Area results in discarding summer flounder). In addition, the accountability measures for windowpane flounder, if triggered, require the use of approved selective trawl gear in certain pre-defined areas. This gear is designed to minimize the catch of flounder. Y VTR data; observer data; dealer reports; VMS data; Regulations at 50 CFR 648 North/South

Recreational Value

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Management control See Management Control risk factor for broader discussion. Trip limits, bag limits, and season length can impact the value generated from the recreational fishery. This element also includes implementation of the ABC from the assessment process and the implementation of the RHL through the specification setting process. Y

Hutniczak, B., Lipton, D., Wiedenmann, J. and Wilberg, M.J. 2018. Valuing Changes in Frequency of Fish Stock Assessments. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.

Hicks, R. & Schnier, K. 2016. Commercial and Recreational Allocation for Summer Flounder. Report to the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, December 2, 2016. 		NA
Profits to recreational businesses Part of the value of the recreational fishery is derived from private recreational fishing businesses. Y

In the Northeast, expenditure surveys for recreational trips have been conducted in 2006, 2011, 2014, 2016-2017

No cost data collection for recreational businesses exists. 		State-level
Distributional shifts (North/south; Inshore/offshore) Distributional shifts can change availability of summer flounder both across states and across modes of fishing (shoreline, charter/party, private vessel). Y MRIP data. State-level
Distributional shifts in alternate target species (cobia for ex.) As distributional shifts in other species occur (e.g., cobia, blueline tilefish), developing fisheries may occur for those species shifting some effort off of summer flounder and to these new/emerging fisheries. Y; data may be limited, likely rare-event species MRIP catch and effort data for some of these new/emerging fisheries - focus on those states where these fisheries taking place; State volunteer angler surveys North/South
Allocation Both inter-sector and state-level allocations can affect the recreational value derived from the fishery, through the implications on trip/bag limits and season length. Y

Council funded allocation review project (Hicks & Schnier); MRIP data and commercial landings.

Historical allocation across sectors/states are available at http://www.mafmc.org/sf-s-bsb. Recreatinal/commercial. 		NA
Consumer surplus/enjoyment value Part of the value generated from the recreational fishery is derived from consumer surplus/enjoyment value. Y

Hutniczak, B., Lipton, D., Wiedenmann, J. and Wilberg, M.J. 2018. Valuing Changes in Frequency of Fish Stock Assessments. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.

Hicks, R. & Schnier, K. 2016. Commercial and Recreational Allocation for Summer Flounder. Report to the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, December 2, 2016. 		No spatial delineation
Intergenerational shifts Intergenerational shifts in preferences for recreational fishing can change the value generated from recreational fishing. Y Thunberg, E., S. Steinback, G. Gray, A. Gautam, and M. Osborn. 1999. Volume III: Summary Report of Methods and Descriptive Statistics for the 1994 Northeast Region Marine Recreational Fishing Participation Survey. US Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum, NMFS-F/SPO-39, 48p. https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st5/RecEcon/Publications/tm_f-spo-39-1999.pdf NA
Regulatory complexity Increasing amount, frequency and complexity of regulations has likely impacted recreational effort and participation. These impacts likely higher in the for-hire sector. Y? MRIP data; state-specific license databases; state DMV records for boat registrations. Need to somehow evaluate regulatory changes to changes in recreational (for-hire, boat, private) participation. For-hire/private mode
Economic drivers (growth & prosperity) Recreational opportunities will depend to some extent on the underlying economic dynamics experienced. At the very least, cycles of economic expansion and contraction should affect the distribution of fishing across modes, having value implications. Y GDP growth, personal income, and consumer spending (including expenditures on recreational goods and services) can be found at https://www.bea.gov/news/glance NA
Recreational Landings Recreational Discards Landings generate value from the provisioning of seafood to the recreational fishermen, but also from bragging rights, aesthetic beauty of the fish landed, quantity of fish, and other attributes of the fish caught & landed during the trip. Discards reduce this value. Y MRIP data NA
Spawning stock biomass SSB levels drive management decisions including allocation, catch limits, and season length, which impacts the value generated from the recreational fishery. Y Stock assessment reports NA

Regulatory Complexity

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Regulatory and/or allocation inequities amongst states or sectors Management actions (e.g., commercial summer flounder amendment) to address inequities and access can lead to increased regulatory complexity (e.g. more complex allocation shares) N NA NA
State allocation - lack of management control in intra-jurisdictional effort Through the recreational conservation equivalency process and regulatory implementation, states have limited ability to control overall effort and therefore the expected catch/harvest associated with particular management measures. States then need to make continued adjustments to regulations in out years to account for under/over harvest in prior years. Y MRIP data; annual Council fishery information documents, ASMFC plan reviews and Monitoring/Technical Committee reports and memos. NA
State allocation - inter/intra state jurisdictional challenges; conservation equivalency/out of state harvesters State/federal regulations and requirements add additional complexity and confusion to process. Coastwide management systems allow for greater regulatory consistency and potentially simplicity, but likely not equitable. State-by-state allocations - both commercially and recreationally - have allowed flexibility for states in crafting measures that work for their fisheries and state needs. That has led to greater disparity and complexity in regulations and regulation changes. In addition, conservation equivalency - even under regional approach - has created a system for states/regions to make continual small tweaks to measures as long as overall harvest in equivalent or within a specified harvest target. State allocations, particularly on the commercial side, has also increased the permitting system by creating state specific limited access programs and potentially limited flexibility and movement. These regulatory and/or permitting differences among states also make it difficult to predict out of state participation and harvest. Y? There is information available (ASMFC FMP reviews, Council FID, state specific websites) to document the regulatory and/or permitting differences between state/federal and states. How to quantify this information and understand impacts? NA
Communication and outreach Ability for commercial and recreational fishermen to readily obtain and comprehend regulations and timing of disseminating information when regulatory changes occur. M - regulatory outreach materials available but how to quantify NMFS, Council/ASMFC, state level outreach materials, NEFSC stock assessment outreach coordinator NA
Data Quality: State allocation - rec data parsed out too finely to generate precise estimates Through the recreational conservation equivalency and regional management process, states/regions utilize the MRIP data at the state/wave/mode level to evaluate and develop management measures (e.g., shore based programs, for-hire specific regulations, seasonal (i.e. daily) adjustments. These adjustments within each state and region have added to the regulatory complexity, even when measures change little year to year, and evaluation of implications/effectiveness of measures likely difficult given MRIP coverage and uncertainty. Y? MRIP data and state volunteer angler surveys; new F-basd evaluation by Fay and McNamee North/South; Sector (for-hire vs. private)
Regulations from other management entities (i.e., NEFMC groundfish) Regulations for other species managed by the NEFMC may result in increased regulatory discards, catch restrictions, and stakeholder confusion. Vessels fishing in the Southern New England (SNE) Exemption Area north must abide by more stringent regulations than when in the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the groundfish regulations outline specific exemptions for fishing for other species (i.e., scallops), but allow for no possession of any other species when on these directed scallop trips. Although not intended to impact MAFMC-managed species, in actuality there are implications. In addition, the accountability measures for windowpane flounder, if triggered, require the use of approved selective trawl gear in certain pre-defined areas. This gear is designed to minimize the catch of flounder. Y VTR data; observer data; dealer reports; VMS data; Regulations at 50 CFR 648 North/South
Interaction with other MAFMC management regulations Overlap, or lack there of, of other fishing opportunities and seasons - both commercial and recreational. Fewer opportunities (other fisheries open and/or available) during summer flounder season(s) could impact summer flounder effort and harvest - both recreational and commercial. Y Evaluation of state/federal seasons for different Mid-Atlantic species NA

Seafood Production

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Recreational discards Both regulation-induced discarding and discard mortality more broadly impacts the provisioning of seafood by recreational fishermen. Y MRIP; state volunteer angler surveys NA
Recreational landings The majority of recreational landings are assumed to be consumed. Y MRIP NA
Consumer welfare Seafood produced both from recreational and commercial landings generate benefits to the consumer. Y NA NA
Commercial landings Summer Flounder commercial catch is used almost exclusively as seafood. Would include commercial profits. Y VRTs; Dealer reports; state reports; ACCSP data warehouse NA
Commercial discards Commercial discards impact the provisioning of seafood by inducing mortality on the Summer Flounder population Y VRTs; Observer database; state reports; ACCSP data warehouse NA
Economic Drivers (Imports) Commercial competition with imports and the potential to undercut domestic seafood (summer flounder) price and demand. Y NA NA
Shoreside support Shoreside support (marinas, dealers, distributors etc.) are necessary for recreational and commercial products to reach markets and be consumed. Y Shoreside support can partially be assessed through the number of seafood merchant wholesaler, seafood product preparation and packaging, and seafood market companies and nonemployer entitites (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm; Nonemployer Statistics. U.S. Census Bureau.https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/nonemployer-statistics.html). Nonemployer entities are businesses that have no paid employees (i.e. the owner is the workforce), while the shoreside support companies include all businesses with paid employees. Some state level data is not available due to confidentiality. Other support businesses such as gear manufacturers, welding companies, etc. are not available due to aggregation of statistics across industries. State & County level data available between 2001 - 2017 (companies) and 2004 - 2017 (nonemployer entities).

Technical Interactions

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Protected Species (ESA listed and MMPA protected) Interactions with bottom trawl gear. Summer Flounder Fishery is known to interact with small cetaceans protected under the MMPA, as well as ESA listed species of sea turtles and Atlantic sturgeon (e.g., MMPA LOF Category II fishery, sea turtle TEDS). This fishery, therefore, has an impact on the continued survival of these species. Monitoring protected species bycatch in the fishery and understanding the interaction risks to protected species posed by the summer flounder fishery now and in the future is needed to help better inform protected species management decisions (e.g., implement mitigation measures to reduce interaction risks to species of marine mammals, sea turtles, or Atlantic sturgeon). Y NEFSC FSB observer reports; MMPA LOF (https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-mammal-protection/marine-mammal-protection-act-list-fisheries); Warden 2011a,b; Murray 2015; sea turtle TEDS (50 CFR 223.206; sea turtle protection area maps:https://www.greateratlantic.fisheries.noaa.gov/educational_resources/gis/data/shapefiles/Summer_Flounder_Fishery-Sea_Turtle_Protection_Area/Summer_Flounder_Fishery-Sea_Turtle_Protection_Area_MAP.jpg; North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Gear type
Distributional shifts (summer flounder and protected species) Changes in the distribution or spatial overlap of summer flounder, its fisheries and protected species may result in higher/lower encounter rates. Interaction changes may be occurring with current species or new/different species in species moving in to area or fishery moving into a new/different area. Y VTR data; Observer data; summer flounder EA or EIS documents; North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Gear type
Communication and regulatory complexity Fishermen unaware of regulatory requirements and changes or confused by complex regulations which may lead to fishing practices that lead to increased technical interactions (e.g., utilizing wrong mesh size or fishing in closed area/season) Not likely Could potentially evaluate law enforcement interactions (not just violations) to qualitatively assess. Outreach materials NA
Windowpane flounder specifically; NEFMC groundfish generally Regulations for other species managed by the NEFMC may result in increased regulatory discards, catch restrictions, and stakeholder confusion. Vessels fishing in the Southern New England (SNE) Exemption Area north must abide by more stringent regulations than when in the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the groundfish regulations outline specific exemptions for fishing for other species (i.e., scallops), but allow for no possession of any other species when on these directed scallop trips. Although not intended to impact MAFMC-managed species, in actuality there are implications. In addition, the accountability measures for windowpane flounder, if triggered, require the use of approved selective trawl gear in certain pre-defined areas. This gear is designed to minimize the catch of flounder. Y VTR data; observer data; dealer reports; VMS data; Regulations at 50 CFR 648 North/South

Offshore Wind

Model Element Justification for Inclusion Data to support (Y/N/M) Data - if yes, identify and list out all data sources, analyses, model, Council project etc. Spatial Component (North/South; Inshore/Offshore; Other - specify)
Estuarine habitat Installation of transmission cables and onshore support infrastructure from wind farms to location(s) on shore could potentially impact inshore/estuarine habitat. M See Environmetal Assessment reports provided below for potential estaurine/nearshore habitat impacts. NA
Offshore habitat Installation and presence of towers could impact, positively and negatively, offshore habitat. Y Environmental report from Block Is Wind Farm - http://dwwind.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Environmental-Report-Section-4.pdf; Danish environmental impact and assessment on fisheries and habitat - https://orbit.dtu.dk/files/55080896/Havvindm_llebog.pdf; NA
Oceanographic transport Presence of towers and wind mills could impact local currents, dispersal/advection of summer flounder larvae and offshore migration patterns of adult summer flounder. M Environmental report from Block Is Wind Farm - http://dwwind.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Environmental-Report-Section-4.pdf; Danish environmental impact and assessment on fisheries and habitat - https://orbit.dtu.dk/files/55080896/Havvindm_llebog.pdf; NA
Distribution shift As stock distribution shifts and/or expands the proportion of the summer flounder population impacted by the location of any wind farms will change over time. Y

NEFSC trawl survey, commercial amendment EIS document, 2018 benchmark assessment; publications (e.g. Pinsky et. al. 2017; Dubik et. al. 2018; L. Rogers et. al. 2019)

Commercial VTRs (harvest/effort locations; vessel size); Social Sciences Branch Fishing Footprint maps; MRIP information; annual staff recreational memos 		NA
Allocation Location of wind farm may place constraints on where/when fishermen can access the fish and ability to obtain/harvest allocations. Y NA NA
Data quality Location and spacing of wind mills is likely to impact the NEFSC trawl survey (design, vessel access etc.) which is a fishery independent survey used in the summer flounder assessment. This could have assessment implications and/or increase scientific uncertainty. Y NEFSC white paper, memos, presentations regarding implications and losses to strata areas and other analyses evaluating survey impacts and implications. NA
Management control Design (i.e., spacing, locations, numbers) and regulations (i.e., access, permitted activities) associated with wind farms are generally outside Council purview and may impact the Council’s ability to manage and monitor the fisheries and population. N NA NA
Spawning stock biomass Wind farm placement and location may impact summer flounder distribution, recruitment and migration - all affecting spawning stock biomass. If the wind farm/lease areas are closed or just unfishable to some/all fishing activities, these areas may serve as sanctuaries which may have spawning stock implications. Y BOEM paper on effects of electromagnetic fields on fish biology and distribution: https://www.boem.gov/BOEM-2019-049/; NA
Recreational fleet dynamics Spatial and temporal changes in recreational fishing effort may change depending upon access to wind farm areas and possible changes in summer flounder distribution. This may affect recreational harvest, profitability, angler satisfaction, and overall recreational value. Y Research done for Block Island Sound Wind Farm that did some social and economic impacts of wind farm to recreational fisheries (Get actual reference or link to results/information); MRIP data; Volunteer angler logbooks NA
Commercial fleet dynamics Spatial and temporal changes in commercial fishing effort may change depending upon access to wind farm areas and possible changes in summer flounder distribution. This may affect commercial harvest, profitability, costs and expenditures, and overall commercial value. Y Research done for Block Island Sound Wind Farm that did some social and economic impacts of wind farm to commercial fisheries. VTRs; Dealer reports NA

Definitions

Rows in the tables above include definitions. Here we list definitions for the risk elements (table headings above). The Council defined risk in terms of meeting its management objectives, which include achieving optimum yield (OY).